Latest Politics Blog
Calif. Exit Polls Might Be Off
Posted by Josh Gerstein
Wed, 6 Feb 2008 at 2:33 AM
updated 10:49 AM
|
A D V E R T I S E M E N T |
|
|
 |
|
A D V E R T I S E M E N T |
|
|
Exit poll results are suggesting a solid win for Mrs. Clinton in California, but the numbers showing her prevailing or tying in all age groups, including 18-29 year olds, are surprising and might suggest something is a bit off in the exit poll sample.
More evidence the CA exit poll could be off: it shows African Americans at 6% of total Democratic turnout, Latinos at 29%, Asians at 8%.
These numbers track with the overall California population, but substantially understate the role blacks play in Democratic politics in California. This could suggest the California exit poll skews inaccurately against Mr. Obama.
Other sages have also noticed these potential exit polls issues and are discussing them here and here.
Another cautionary note for those extrapolating a big win for Mrs. Clinton based on the early returns: they are almost entirely absentee ballots. John Edwards was running at 10% or more in the first waves of returns, signaling the absentee vote. Checking county by county, many counties have tallied mostly absentees so far.
As more of today's votes come in, Mr. Edwards's percentage is dropping and Senator Obama's is coming come up a bit--probably not enough to catch Mrs. Clinton, but it will be a lot closer than it looked at the outset.
It's also worth noting that the networks and others calling the state for Mrs. Clinton did so when polls were still being held open by a judge in the Oakland-Berkeley area, an area that should be an Obama stronghold.
EARLY MORNING UPDATE: Numbers are still being tallied out in California, but it looks like absentee ballots accounted for more than 50% of the total vote, which favored Mrs. Clinton since her numbers seemed to be fading a bit towards the end. Also explains Mr. Edwards racking up 6% of the results so far.
TrackBack URL for this post: http://www.latestpolitics.com/blog/trackback.php/890/8c24e/631
Comment on this weblog entry
Latest Politics Blog Homepage
| |
|
Top NY Sun Political Stories
Latest LP Blog Posts
 |
Online Extras |
 |
|
|
Out & About
SOCIETY | Dispatches from the New York party circuit.
Obama and Israel
SUN SPECIAL | The New York Sun examines Senator Obama's policy stance toward Israel.
Stimulus Impact May Be Short-Lived
BUSINESS | Liz Peek warns that until consumers perk up, the spending of their tax rebate checks may not carry the economy too far.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
